Bet the farm

Avoid betting the farm on something you are unsure of. The American slang expression "bet the farm" means to risk everything you have on something you believe will certainly happen. Some high-stakes gamblers bet the farm when playing cards. If you play a high-stakes poker game, it means the bets are so high you could lose a lot of money. Some people believe so strongly about something that they put their money where their mouth is. To put your money where your mouth is means to show by action and not just words that you believe in something.

If you tell people a particular stock will rise, you can put your money where your mouth is by buying that stock. Many people believe opinion polls which show a particular candidate or political party will win an election. I would not bet the farm on the outcome of a democratic election because poll results are not always right. Polls showed Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump in the 2016 US election, but Trump won. Polls showed Prime Minister Narendra Modi\'s party would win by a landslide in the recent Indian elections. The party won but not by a landslide. It lost its majority in Parliament.

Polls correctly predicted Britain\'s Labour Party would win by a landslide in last week\'s elections. Polls show former President Donald Trump will defeat President Joe Biden in November\'s US election. The election is four months away. Anything can happen. Biden could step down because he did so badly in a recent debate with Trump and let a stronger candidate challenge Trump. Politics and polls are unpredictable. I prefer waiting for the outcome.

在你不確定的事情上，最好避免 betting the farm——美式俚語"bet the farm"是指孤注一擲，打賭某樣你相信的事情上必定會發生。一些下高額賭注（high-stakes）的賭徒在玩撲克牌時會孤注一擲（bet the farm）。若你玩一個 high-stakes撲克遊戲，那即是它的賭注很大，你可能會輸很多錢。一些人強烈相信某事時，他們會 put their money where their mouth is——to put your money where your mouth is意即說到做到，用行動來證明自己所相信的事。

若你跟人說某一隻特定的股票會升，你可以put your money where your mouth is，付諸行動去買那隻股票。許多人相信意見調查，能反映某一候選人或政黨會勝出選舉。我就不會孤注一擲（bet the farm）打賭民主式的選舉結果，因為民調不總是準確的。民調顯示希拉里‧克林頓會在2016年的美國大選中擊敗唐納德‧特朗普，但最終由特朗普勝出。在最近的印度選舉中，民調顯示，首相納倫德拉‧莫迪的政黨將會壓倒性的勝出。他的政黨是有勝出，不過並非壓倒性。它最終未能取得國會過半數議席。

民調正確地預測到英國的工黨會在上周的選舉中獲得壓倒性的勝利。民調反映前總統唐納德‧特朗普會在美國11月的大選中擊敗現任總統祖‧拜登。還有4個月便舉行大選，任何事情都會發生。拜登在最近跟特朗普的辯論中表現差劣，因此他或者會退選，讓另一個更強的候選人去挑戰特朗普。政治和民調都是難以預測的。我情願靜靜等待結果。

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Michael Chugani褚簡寧
中譯：七刻